Population growth in U.S. slowest ever

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — Population trends were noted in the latest release of the U.S. Census Bureau. The data supports what most ‘felt’ through July 2021. People are flocking to Mountain States like Idaho, Montana, and, yes, Wyoming (though maybe not as many as some might guess for the Cowboy State) and others can’t get out of California and New York fast enough.

The migration push to the Intermountain West appears fueled by COVID concerns and the rise of remote working and the associated dispersion away from dense urban centers.

Numbers were not up across the board, however. In fact, in an astounding development, the West fell to the Midwest level net domestic migration. That had never occurred in the annual state estimates, at least back to 2000. In 2021, the Midwest lost 0.18% of its population to net domestic migration, the same as the West. By comparison, from 2010 to 2020, the Midwest lost 0.27% of its population annually to net domestic migration compared to a 0.10% annual gain in the West.

Idaho led the nation with a 2.65% net increase in population, while Montana (+1.77%), Arizona (+1.3%), South Carolina (+1.26%), and Maine (+1.14%) rounded out the top 5.

Wyoming experienced growth, but not much

The annual increase in Wyoming population from 2020 was 1,536 persons, or 0.3%. Teton County itself grew by .82%. According to the state Division of Economic Analysis, there are two factors that contribute to population change: natural increase and net migration.

The natural increase is the number of births minus the number of deaths. Wyoming had 6,213 births minus 6,042 deaths for a natural increase of 171 this past July. Estimated net migration is in‐migration less outmigration. Wyoming’s net migration was about 1,368. This positive net migration means that 1,368 more residents moved into Wyoming than moved out of the state between July 2020 and July 2021.

“Wyoming’s natural population increase has slowed tremendously over the last couple of years,” said Amy Bittner, principal economist with the State of Wyoming Economic Analysis Division. “Wyoming is experiencing some of the same issues as the U.S. when it comes to natural population growth, declining birth rates and an increased aging population.”

Given little organic growth, Bittner agreed the pandemic was likely driving people to the openness of Wyoming. “COVID‐19 may have prompted more people to move to Wyoming than leave the state,” she said.

National population growth slowest ever

Nationally, the population grew at the slowest rate in the nation’s history, 0.1 percent or 392,665 persons from July 2020 to July 2021. Half of the top ten states with the largest annual percent population growth were in the West. Western states took the top four spots, led by Idaho, with the nation’s highest annual percent growth, 2.9 percent, followed by Utah (1.7%), Montana (1.7%), and Arizona (1.4%), while Nevada ranked 9th (1.0%). Wyoming’s annual growth ranked 22nd highest in the nation.

Overall, for the U.S., the slow population growth has been due to decreasing net international migration, lower birth rates, and increased mortality due to the COVID‐19 pandemic. U.S. birth rates have been declining for years and mortality rates have risen due to an aging population. It was the first time since 1937 that the U.S. population grew by less than one million people and it was the lowest numeric growth since 1900.