COVID calculus: Either jab, masks work or something else is driving the numbers

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — When it comes to COVID, something about the numbers just doesn’t add up.

Wyoming is the least vaccinated state in the U.S. yet continues to boast some of the lowest metrics anywhere. By contrast, Teton County is the most vaccinated county in the state (94.3%) and has the most restrictive COVID-19 public health measures of any county in the state in place, yet is currently experiencing the highest number of cases at any time during the pandemic.

Omicron is not to blame. At least not yet. There are currently no positive cases of omicron in Teton County.

So, by the data, are vaccinations or masks even working?

Many point to increased testing. More test equals more cases. Are more people testing in areas with higher compliance and stricter public health mandates? Are more people testing for travel and attendance requirements, and is that amplifying the numbers? Is it tourists?

At the state level, even with Teton County’s numbers skewing the curve, Wyoming’s average daily cases per 100,000 is 28. Only Idaho and Montana have lower numbers. Yet, according to a new report from Becker’s Hospital Review, the Cowboy State ranks dead last in vaccination rate at 47%. New York, meanwhile, has one of the highest vaccinations rates at 72% but COVID cases there are swelling at 208 per 100k.

What gives?

The data suggests vaccines don’t prevent infection. When this is pointed out, health experts’ backup pitch is vaccines lessen severity of symptoms. This, for a disease where 80-90% of the infected feel no or little symptoms, and usually have to be told they are sick by a positive test.

Again, less than half of Wyoming residents are vax’d, yet the state has not recorded a death in 18 days. As of December 31, a total of 74 people are in the hospital with COVID. These are some of the lowest numbers in the country, which is 62% vaccinated as a nation.